Dietary supplements market to grow by 3% in 2018

More information on this topic is presented in the PMR report:

The Polish market for dietary supplements and other food products sold in pharmacies will grow at a slower rate in 2018-2023, due to market saturation, price competition, and heightened regulatory scrutiny, according to a new report from PMR, “Dietary supplements market in Poland 2018. Market analysis and development forecasts for 2018-2023.”

 

Market growth to stay below 5% by 2023

Growth in the Polish market for dietary supplements and other food products sold in pharmacies (e.g. dietetic foods for specific medical purposes) slowed down in the first quarter of 2018, according to our calculations. Mounting restrictions on advertising and greater scrutiny from regulators in general – factors that began to impact negatively on the market’s performance already in 2017 – are part of the explanation. Growth is also being restrained by price erosion, a consequence of the rise of cheap private-label products and generally intense competition in the marketplace. Therefore, we forecast that the market’s value will grow by only about 3% in the full year.

We expect the regulatory climate to become still more stringent going forward, with more curbs on advertising, new labelling requirements, and authorities moving to verify health claims made on dietary supplements. This, coupled with high base effects, will keep market growth below 5% in the years until 2023, according to our forecasts.

New product launches will remain the main driver of market value growth in the forecast period. One consequence of the increased regulatory scrutiny of the sector will be to keep poor-quality products out of the market, which should be good for prices. So should the ban on further expansion of pharmacy chains.

Importantly, our forecast assumes that no restrictions on the sale of dietary supplements in pharmacies of the kind that the Ministry of Health contemplated a while ago will be enacted during the next five years. Indeed, we expect consumers to become more inclined to buy dietary supplements in pharmacies, as a result of the heightened public debate and awareness-raising initiatives around safety issues.

We also maintain a bullish outlook on online sales, forecasting the channel to grow by more than 10% per annum in the years until 2023.

 

Favourable macroeconomic environment

Poland’s healthy macroeconomic fundamentals will support growth in the dietary supplements market in 2018-2023. Having accelerated to an impressive 4.3% (in real terms) in 2017, GDP growth will ease somewhat over the forecast period, but will remain robust at over 2.5% per annum. Household consumption will stay strong, fuelled by benign job market conditions (i.e., low and falling unemployment and rapid wage growth). On the other hand, demographic factors, i.e. the shrinking of the country’s working-age and pre-working age population, will act as a damper on market value growth. 

 

 


More information on this topic is presented in the PMR report:
Dietary supplements market in Poland 2018. Market analysis and development forecasts for 2018-2023