Innovative drug market in Central Europe to develop by 2-7% per annum between 2018 and 2023

More information on this topic is presented in the PMR report:

Among the five Central European countries: Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, sales of innovative drugs will exhibit the most rapid rate of growth in Bulgaria, and the least rapid in the Czech Republic. Romania, Hungary and Slovakia will boast a stable annual sales value increase in this group of drugs – of around 5-6% per annum for 2018-2023, according to the latest PMR report “Generic and innovative drugs market in Central Europe 2018. Market analysis and development forecasts for 2018-2023”.

Adding new innovative drugs to reimbursement lists: crucial market driver

In Romania, the evolution of the innovative medicines market between 2017 and 2023 in Romania will depend largely on the update of the reimbursement list. In general, the situation has improved slightly in the last few years, with ever more innovative drugs added to the reimbursement. In addition, the prescribing of some cancer drugs or medicines used for rare diseases was simplified in 2017. However, access to innovative medicines could be better and many of them have been withdrawn from the Romanian market because of the low prices.

Slovakia also enjoys more optimistic forecasts for the innovative subgroup than those for 2014-2018 and 2016-2021. In mid-2017 the Slovak Health Ministry prepared a draft law under which the costs of majority of innovative drugs would be automatically covered from the public health insurance system, with local public health insurance providers no longer having to approve innovative treatments for their patients on a case-by-case basis. This is one of the reasons for which, after a difficult 2017 (negative change of the market value), we expect a relatively substantial rate of growth in sales of innovative drugs.

In Hungary the stabilisation of the institutional environment (changes in the reimbursement system, such as the addition of some innovative drugs to the reimbursement list, have already taken effect) will allow market growth of innovative medicines by 5% per annum in the next five years. The forecasts, however, fall slightly short of those of 2016-2021 because of the long reimbursement process for innovative drugs and the blind bids, which are now organised also for original medicines.

Hungary: the recovery from the long crisis

Since 2012 the Rx market in Hungary has been subject to cost containment policy, and the blind-bid system, which renders prices in this drug group low, in particular. Pharmaceutical sales have been on the rise again from 2015 and the market recovered from the macroeconomic crisis and slowly adjusted to changes caused by the introduction of blind-bidding system (but the negative effects of the system have been not totally diminished to date).

Economic growth should accelerate considerably in 2017-2018 (to around 4.0%), supported by both investment and household consumption. In further years, real GDP growth will slow to 2-3%, mainly because of labour shortages (constraining the propensity to invest among companies) and higher inflation (which will have a negative impact on consumption). However, the ageing of the population (and people over 80 in particular) should boost the value of the generic and innovative drug market in the medium term.

 


More information on this topic is presented in the PMR report:
Generic and innovative drugs market in CE 2018. Market analysis and development forecasts for 2018-2023